Leading technology companies have different forecasts for the semiconductor market in 2020. Before updating COVID-19, IDC forecasted a growth of 2%, and Gartner predicted a stronger growth of 12.5%. By 2020, IDC predicts that half-revenue will fall by 3% to 6%, while Gartner only predicts a decline of 0.9%.
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In order to obtain these figures, the situation in the second half of this year will have to decline significantly from these reliable first half figures. Of course, due to concerns about the supply disruption later this year, there will be a lot of demand for chips in the near future. This may mean buying dry goods later, especially if demand is declining and customers have a lot of inventory.
Nevertheless, depending on the application of the technology, the chip growth in 2020 may still be very different.
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Assuming that in the next few months or quarters, we will have to continue to take social isolation measures, then I will see data center chips receive much attention, especially in terms of memory, storage and processing power. As people play more video games at home, as well as new Xbox and playStation consoles scheduled for release this winter, graphics chips for video games, semi-custom chips for memory and video consoles will also grow.
However, mobile phones, industrial and automotive applications are all affected by consumer purchases and economic growth, and are likely to be hit hard. This is why Microchip is the most pessimistic. Compared with the other two companies mentioned above, it has a much broader business in the industrial, automotive and consumer electronics sectors.
Therefore, I think technology investors need to choose their own location and focus on chip stocks, which will enter the data center, gaming and laptop markets in 2020. More broadly, chip manufacturers covering the industrial and automotive fields (such as Microchip) may have much weaker sales in the second half of the year.
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